Sunday, June 26, 2016

EU break up

Yesterday, I posted a blog saying that I thought one of the unintended consequences of the UK EU referendum was the breakup of the EU.

Today, I find the following piece wrt to Mr Soros.

"The United Kingdom's fateful decision to break away from the European Union makes an eventual dissolution of the 28 member bloc "practically irreversible," billionaire financier George Soros wrote on Saturday.
In a somber post at Project Syndicate, Soros, who rose to prominence by speculating against the British pound—immortalizing him as the man who broke the Bank of England—speculated that the U.K.'s referendum to split from the EU is likely to hasten the breakup of the entire EU.
Brexit, combined with Europe's festering migrant crisis, has created a "catastrophic scenario" that has grave consequences for Britain and the world economy, Soros wrote, "making the disintegration of the EU practically irreversible."
Noting that Scotland is agitating to leave the U.K., Soros said the county itself "may not survive" the decision to leave Europe.
"The consequences for the real economy [from Brexit] will be comparable only to the financial crisis of 2007-2008," wrote the billionaire, adding that a domino effect could potentially end decades of continental unification. 
"But the implications for Europe could be far worse," Soros cautioned. "Tensions among member states have reached a breaking point, not only over refugees, but also as a result of exceptional strains between creditor and debtor countries within the euro zone."

'We must not give up'

A European Union flag, with a hole cut in the middle, flies at half-mast outside a home in Knutsford Cheshire after today's historic referendum on June 24, 2016 in Knutsford, United Kingdom.
A European Union flag, with a hole cut in the middle, flies at half-mast outside a home in Knutsford Cheshire after today's historic referendum on June 24, 2016 in Knutsford, United Kingdom.
Soros, a polarizing figure who is known for financing left-wing causes, is an enthusiastic backer of European integration. In 1992, he dealt a fatal blow to Britain's participation in Europe's exchange rate mechanism—the precursor to the single currency.
The billionaire also appears to be profiting from the turmoil stemming from the U.K.'s vote.
Last week, CNBC reported that Soros and fellow "macro" fund manager and Stanley Druckenmiller, who also runs a private firm managing family money through investments in a range of assets, hold bullish positions in gold. Bullion is a safe-haven asset that rises during times of market volatility, but exactly how those positions are performing for both men aren't yet clear.
Brexit "is sure to be fraught with further uncertainty and political risk, because what is at stake was never only some real or imaginary advantage for Britain, but the very survival of the European project," he added. "Brexit will open the floodgates for other anti-European forces within the Union."
Already, political opposition is mobilizing in other countries opposed to further European integration. Barely a day after the U.K. referendum, parties in places like the Netherlands and Austria suggested they might hold votes of their own. 
A report in the U.K. publication The Express said the German government was bracing itself for the possibility of at least 5 more countries threatening to leave the EU. In his article, Soros said a potential threat also comes from Italy, where the populist Five Star Movement may rise to power as a "full blown banking crisis" looms.
The billionaire ended on a slightly optimistic note by saying that proponents of European integration "must not give up. Admittedly, the EU is a flawed construction."
However, he added, "all of us who believe in the values and principles that the EU was designed to uphold must band together to save it by thoroughly reconstructing it. I am convinced that as the consequences of Brexit unfold in the weeks and months ahead, more and more people will join us."


Saturday, June 25, 2016

Unintended Consequences of the UK referendum to leave the EU

It is my prediction that there will be two unintended consequences:

1.  The breakup of the UK within five years:

- Scotland becomes independent
- Northern Ireland unites with the Republic of Ireland
- Gibraltar reverts to Spain

2.   The breakup of the EU within 10 years, with the following countries opting to leave:

- Sweden
- The Netherlands
- Denmark
- France
- Italy
- Czech Republic

Anyone taking bets?